The statistician has released his NCAA predictions, and it’s ain’t pretty — at least for UNC fans. He gives the team almost no chance of winning a national championship. Even VCU is a better bet at .4%. Not surprisingly, Louisville is his most likely winner at 22.7%.
Do put your money on Carolina beating Villanova and moving into the third round though. That’s a 67% chance. Making the Sweet 16 is only a 14% chance, however.
There’s also this tidbit about why Silver isn’t putting his money on Kansas.
One additional factor helping Florida is that Kansas could face a very tough Round of 16 game against No. 4 seed Michigan, which had until recently appeared to be in the running for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and isn’t all that easy to differentiate from the Big Ten teams that are seeded ahead of it. North Carolina, the No. 8 seed, could also give Kansas problems if it begins to play up to its preseason billing.
Meanwhile, over at kenpom.com, Pomeroy has Florida as his top overall team, followed by Louisville. Carolina slides in at #28, one slot off the actual rank given to them by the selection committee.