Tar Heel Bred Tar Heel Dead

JMM back in the NBA!

January 19, 2015

20150119-mcadoo-760Golden State, the team that signed him earlier in the season before letting him go, has again picked up James Michael McAdoo. It’s only to a 10-day contract, so it’s not like he’s in the League for good, but there have been plenty of pro players who have enjoyed long careers after starting with a 10-day contract: Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, Anthony Mason, Kurt Rambis… Fingers crossed JMM makes the permanent roster and gets to continue playing for the best team in basketball.

This week, Reed and Andy break down the victories against NC State and Virginia Tech and try to figure out if we still need to worry about 3-point shooting. The much talked about “Best Player” debate is covered along with yet another two-fer of Duke Sucks.

Great win against Louisville! So how did the Heels close this one out when they failed in a very similar situation against Notre Dame? We conclude our “Buy, Sell, Hold” exercise, evaluating the bench players. And it’s a double dip in Dook Sucks: Andy has a brush with an actual Dookie, and the Devils get destroyed in Raleigh.

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Stay tuned…

January 12, 2015

This week’s podcast will be up tomorrow due to scheduling conflicts.

Sure, he’s doing it in the D-League, but that’s all right. This guy clearly has skills and has a real shot of making an NBA roster one day. Don’t tell me he’s any less skilled than everyone on the Knicks. He’s especially good at the pick and roll and seems much better at finishing at the rim with contact than he was in his UNC days. (Phil Jackson, are you hearing this?) Here’s highlight footage of JMM going for 25 and 13.

Or so says the latest DraftExpress. This is a little bit insane, especially considering that a couple months ago, only Brice Johnson and Paige were charting in the top 100, with Johnson being ranked higher. And now? Well…

Kennedy Meeks is the big dog at #33

Johnson at #41

Justin Jackson at #44

J.P. Tokoto at #46

Marcus Paige at #58

It seems like Paige’s slump early in the season could potentially hurt his NBA stock. Whatever. It’s still early. And even so, what’s wrong with being a great college player? That’s what NCAA championships are built on anyway. Montross. Phelps. May. Ellington. Hansbrough. All were exceptional college athletes who had/are having mediocre pro careers. But would you rather have them or some one-and-done phenom who may win you some games during the regular season (cough — cough — Jabari Parker — cough — cough) but not deliver come March? I’ll stick with a bunch of late second-rounders, thanks.

This is something we’ll be discussing on the podcast later in January. The answer might have seemed obvious over the summer. But now?

It’s the new year, and we’re back to discuss Marcus Paige, a surprising contribution from Joel James and the Heels’ defense. We play “Buy, Sell, Hold” with the starting five, and in Dook Sucks, Jay Williams is up to no good. Email us at thbthd@gmail.com

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Happy new year!

December 29, 2014

Here’s hoping 2015 is a good year for everyone. If you haven’t noticed, it’s a bit slow around here for the holidays. Your normal service should resume shortly.

Here are the stats Andy mentioned from Episode 106:

* I used final recruiting rankings from RSCI (Recruiting Services Composite Index)
* I only counted a recruit if they were listed in the top 100 of their final class ranking.
* We have 13 scholarship spots on the team per year so I looked at all players on the roster.
* For seasons where we didn’t recruit all 13 players from the top 100, I assumed the remaining scholarship players would be ranked 101 – just to normalize.
* To help you read below, I arranged it like this:
     Roster Year (2004 means the players on the team for the entire 2003-2004 season – all classes)
     Number of scholarship players from the top 100 (x/13) that were on the roster
     Average Ranking of the players that were from the Top 100
     Average Ranking of all 13 if you count the rest as ranked 101st
     Season Result
2004
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 7/13
Average Ranking of those 7: 21.29
Average Ranking of all 13: 58.08
NCAA 2nd Round
2005
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 23.44
Average Ranking of all 13: 47.31
National Champs
2006
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 6/13 (!!)
Average Ranking of those 6: 32.33
Average Ranking of all 13: 69.31
NCAA 2nd Round
2007 (Roy’s first recruiting class from 2003 were seniors this year)
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 12/13
Average Ranking of those 12: 30.92
Average Ranking of all 13: 36.31
NCAA Elite 8
2008
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 10/13
Average Ranking of those 10: 30.8
Average Ranking of all 13: 47.00
NCAA Final 4
2009
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 11/13
Average Ranking of those 11: 25.91
Average Ranking of all 13: 37.46
NCAA Champs
2010
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 11/13
Average Ranking of those 11: 33.64
Average Ranking of all 13: 44.00
NIT Finals
2011
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 7/13 (!!)
Average Ranking of those 7: 18.86
Average Ranking of all 13: 56.77
NCAA Elite 8
2012
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 16.56
Average Ranking of all 13: 42.54
NCAA Elite 8
2013
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 31.44
Average Ranking of all 13: 52.85
NCAA 2nd Round
2014
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 44.00
Average Ranking of all 13: 61.54
NCAA 2nd Round
2015
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 10/13
Average Ranking of those 10: 39.50
Average Ranking of all 13: 52.69
???
Observations/Conclusions
* Best years in terms of average rankings of top 100 players (in order from lowest): 2012, 2011*, 2004*, 2005, 2009
* *-2011 and 2004 skew a bit on this because we only had 7 top 100 players but they were all pretty good.
* Championship and championship-caliber years jump out in 2012, 2009 and 2005
* Best years in terms of average rankings considering all 13 spots (lowest first): 2007, 2009, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005
* The 2007 roster was the first one built completely by Roy and it was loaded. Note that 12/13 spots were top 100.
* Worst years in terms of average rankings of top 100 players on the roster: 2014, 2015, 2010, 2006, 2013
* 2006 was a bit of an anomaly as we only had 6 top 100 players with Reyshawn Terry and Quinten Thomas skewing things.
* If you think our recruiting has fallen off lately, it has. the last 3 years are three of the worst 5 years in the Roy era in terms of roster makeup.
* Worst years when considering all 13 spots: 2006, 2014, 2004, 2015, 2013
* Same as above. The last 3 years have not been good in terms of talent.
* If you take out 2004, 2006 and 2011 when we had less than 9 of our 13 spots filled by top 100 players, the last 2 years look  even worse. They are way below the norm of where we usually recruit.
* In the last 3 years, we have only had one player on our roster ranked in the top 10 each year (McAdoo, McAdoo, Justin Jackson)
* The only other year in the Roy era that we only had 1 top 10 player on our roster was 2006 (Hansbrough)
* Only twice have we had only 2 top 10 players on our roster (2010 w/ Ed Davis and John Henson; 2011 w/ Henson and Barnes)
* Every other year, we’ve had 3 or more top 10 players
* On average, we need to recruit approximately 1 top 10 player per year.
* It’s probably not getting any better next year. We have signed one player, Luke Maye, who is outside of the top 100. We are still in the running for #1 Jalen Brown (very unlikely to happen) and #25 Brandon Ingram (he was once thought to be a UNC lock but now seems to be leaning elsewhere). Even in the best case scenario of getting Ingram, we still wouldn’t be at the level of years past.

 

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