Tar Heel Bred Tar Heel Dead

Here are the stats Andy mentioned from Episode 106:

* I used final recruiting rankings from RSCI (Recruiting Services Composite Index)
* I only counted a recruit if they were listed in the top 100 of their final class ranking.
* We have 13 scholarship spots on the team per year so I looked at all players on the roster.
* For seasons where we didn’t recruit all 13 players from the top 100, I assumed the remaining scholarship players would be ranked 101 – just to normalize.
* To help you read below, I arranged it like this:
     Roster Year (2004 means the players on the team for the entire 2003-2004 season – all classes)
     Number of scholarship players from the top 100 (x/13) that were on the roster
     Average Ranking of the players that were from the Top 100
     Average Ranking of all 13 if you count the rest as ranked 101st
     Season Result
2004
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 7/13
Average Ranking of those 7: 21.29
Average Ranking of all 13: 58.08
NCAA 2nd Round
2005
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 23.44
Average Ranking of all 13: 47.31
National Champs
2006
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 6/13 (!!)
Average Ranking of those 6: 32.33
Average Ranking of all 13: 69.31
NCAA 2nd Round
2007 (Roy’s first recruiting class from 2003 were seniors this year)
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 12/13
Average Ranking of those 12: 30.92
Average Ranking of all 13: 36.31
NCAA Elite 8
2008
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 10/13
Average Ranking of those 10: 30.8
Average Ranking of all 13: 47.00
NCAA Final 4
2009
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 11/13
Average Ranking of those 11: 25.91
Average Ranking of all 13: 37.46
NCAA Champs
2010
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 11/13
Average Ranking of those 11: 33.64
Average Ranking of all 13: 44.00
NIT Finals
2011
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 7/13 (!!)
Average Ranking of those 7: 18.86
Average Ranking of all 13: 56.77
NCAA Elite 8
2012
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 16.56
Average Ranking of all 13: 42.54
NCAA Elite 8
2013
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 31.44
Average Ranking of all 13: 52.85
NCAA 2nd Round
2014
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 9/13
Average Ranking of those 9: 44.00
Average Ranking of all 13: 61.54
NCAA 2nd Round
2015
Top 100 Scholarship Players: 10/13
Average Ranking of those 10: 39.50
Average Ranking of all 13: 52.69
???
Observations/Conclusions
* Best years in terms of average rankings of top 100 players (in order from lowest): 2012, 2011*, 2004*, 2005, 2009
* *-2011 and 2004 skew a bit on this because we only had 7 top 100 players but they were all pretty good.
* Championship and championship-caliber years jump out in 2012, 2009 and 2005
* Best years in terms of average rankings considering all 13 spots (lowest first): 2007, 2009, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005
* The 2007 roster was the first one built completely by Roy and it was loaded. Note that 12/13 spots were top 100.
* Worst years in terms of average rankings of top 100 players on the roster: 2014, 2015, 2010, 2006, 2013
* 2006 was a bit of an anomaly as we only had 6 top 100 players with Reyshawn Terry and Quinten Thomas skewing things.
* If you think our recruiting has fallen off lately, it has. the last 3 years are three of the worst 5 years in the Roy era in terms of roster makeup.
* Worst years when considering all 13 spots: 2006, 2014, 2004, 2015, 2013
* Same as above. The last 3 years have not been good in terms of talent.
* If you take out 2004, 2006 and 2011 when we had less than 9 of our 13 spots filled by top 100 players, the last 2 years look  even worse. They are way below the norm of where we usually recruit.
* In the last 3 years, we have only had one player on our roster ranked in the top 10 each year (McAdoo, McAdoo, Justin Jackson)
* The only other year in the Roy era that we only had 1 top 10 player on our roster was 2006 (Hansbrough)
* Only twice have we had only 2 top 10 players on our roster (2010 w/ Ed Davis and John Henson; 2011 w/ Henson and Barnes)
* Every other year, we’ve had 3 or more top 10 players
* On average, we need to recruit approximately 1 top 10 player per year.
* It’s probably not getting any better next year. We have signed one player, Luke Maye, who is outside of the top 100. We are still in the running for #1 Jalen Brown (very unlikely to happen) and #25 Brandon Ingram (he was once thought to be a UNC lock but now seems to be leaning elsewhere). Even in the best case scenario of getting Ingram, we still wouldn’t be at the level of years past.

 

In this week’s episode, Reed and Andy come to terms with the Kentucky loss, worry about whether it’s ok to worry about Marcus Paige and look ahead to the next few key games. Andy lays out a statistic-laden breakdown of recruiting during the Roy Era to try and figure out why our talent seems to be a bit down. Duke Sucks includes a Plumlee a transfer and a letter that no one will read.

UPDATE: No episode this week, due to scheduling issues. Next episode will be available 12/14.

Reed and Andy discuss the Battle for Atlantis and what it will mean for UNC going forward. Who knew that rebounding would be such a problem for this year’s team? Will Nate Britt and Justin Jackson continue to hit the three consistently? Football rivals play for some sort of prize, why don’t we do the same in basketball? The Duke Sucks segment peeks at the pages of Dickie V’s new book.

  • Butler: 29 offensive rebounds
  • That’s it.

This week’s Dook sucks

November 25, 2014

We have a video entry two weeks in a row. Here’s what we’re talking about on episode 104. This gentleman frightens us.

This week, Reed and Andy break down the Davidson game including the spirited play of Mr. Meeks. How much should we expect from Marcus Paige at this point in the season. There are lots of things to be thankful for at this time of year, we name a few. There’s big news in the Duke Sucks segment along with a broken chair.

Yep, a mock draft for next summer is already up at Draft Express, and it’s that exciting mix of solid guesses mixed with wild speculation that we love. One interesting point: the highest charting Carolina player is Brice Johnson at #24. Marcus Paige checks in at #34. As with most things in the NBA, this seems to be about potential. Johnson is rapidly gaining weight and he’s  pretty athletic  and has a soft touch for a big man. If he shores up a few skills (defense, anyone?), he could be a pretty good NBA player one day. Maybe the knock on Paige is that he’s not dominant enough or he’s too small. Who knows?

Meanwhile, all three Dook freshmen are set to go in the top 20. Scary.

  • It was a little hard noticing things when the online stream was unceremoniously cut off. Bastuds.
  • Kennedy Meeks is a monster. It’s gonna be real interesting to see if he’s even close to this dominant against better teams with bigger players.
  • Free throws continue to be a problem. Here’s hoping the team can get up above 70% before the conference season starts.
  • After Roy challenged Tokoto to get more offensive boards, he grabbed 2. Not bad, not great.
  • Brice Johnson fouled out? Luckily, the Heels have major depth when it comes to big men.
  • It’s still really early, but it’s looking likely that Paige won’t lead the team in scoring this season. Which is probably a good thing. Nice that the team has other options and doesn’t depend solely on Paige.
  • Justin Jackson really stuffs the stat sheet. And he’s incredibly efficient.
  • The Davidson coach looks like a villain out of a 1980s comedy. He’s the stuck-up guy at the country club giving Rodney Dangerfield a hard time, or the dean at the college trying to crack down on the frat.

Statute of limitations?

November 18, 2014

Here’s a really interesting article about the AFAM scandal and possible NCAA sanctions. Everyone knows the NCAA is almost never consistent with its punishment (or lack of punishment). The organization can also do pretty much whatever it wants. It is God. But here’s something I never considered, as pointed out by this article. The NCAA may have waited too long to impose any penalty.

First, pursuant to Section 19.5.11 of the NCAA Division I Compliance Manual, there is a statute of limitations of four years, which necessarily requires that any alleged violation continue into the 2010 season. Unfortunately for all those cheering for North Carolina’s demise, zero basketball players have majored in African American Studies since 2010. ZERO. In 2009, the year Wayne Waldon and Deb Crowder left the employ of the university, only one North Carolina basketball player majored in African American Studies. The NCAA has blown the statute of limitations, and any punishment it seeks is now untimely.

Also, for better or worse, basketball players stopped majoring in AFAM even before news of the scandal broke.

Second, there is concrete evidence of institutional control. The records are clear: 10 basketball players majored in African American Studies in 2005, one majored in African American Studies in 2009 and zero majored in African American Studies from 2010 until present. If North Carolina truly lacked institutional control over its basketball program, there would not be such a sharp decline.

You might argue this is because Crowder left the university, but the fact remains: If the NCAA does follow its own rules, it’s going to have trouble penalizing anyone on the basketball team, especially going all the way back to 2005.

 

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